JaBbA's Hut

Kerry just conceded.

I'm very worried about this country. I thought Kerry would really bring people together, as they realized that he wasn't evil and would do good things in office. Now we've got 4 more years of the divisive policies of BushCo.

This one will be brought the the OSC immediately, but a federal judge in Cinci has ruled that the law that allows citizens to challenge the legality of voters at the polling places is unconstitutional.

This is huge, and if it stands up means that "Operation Eagle Eye, 2004 edition", will be stopped in it's tracks.

Kerry's final message before election day - watch it here.

Bruce Springsteen will be in Cleveland with John Kerry the night before the election!

Headlines all over the last few days - "Bush Ahead"

But electoral-vote.com has the electoral college moving from about 220 for Kerry to 291 today in the last 5 days, including a SurveyUSA poll in FL that shows Kerry with 50% to Bush 49%.

Zogby released a whole bunch of polls today, and he's been closest in the last few elections. He shows Bush leading in 7 of the battleground states, including Ohio...but within the margin of error in all 7. So that's a statistical tie, and can't be called.

Kerry is leading in 6 battleground states with a total of 71 EVs...and ALL outside the MOE. (That includes FL - Zogby has Bush 50/49). 3 More states have Kerry within the MOE with 21 Evs.

So the 74+21 EVs within the MOE in these polls should be split somehow - for fun we'll split them down the middle. We'll give 47 to Kerry and 48 to Bush. (Yeah, I know. This is just for fun.)

So, Kerry's 168 from non-battleground + 71 outside MOE + 47 for fun = 286 EVs.

Conventional wisom still holds. He has to win 2 of PA, OH and FL, and since PA looks good, he can focus on the other 2. I think he'd take FL in a fair election, but I doubt we'll get one. So it's still down to OH. And since Ohio leans heavily red everywhere except NE Ohio, it comes down to the GOTV campaign in Cuyahoga county. If those 250,000 new voters actually vote, they could very easily decide the new president.

Of course, there's also the World Series Factor. If the Astros and RedSox win today, we'll have a MA vs. TX Series. And you know I'll be rooting on the most cursed team in baseball. I'm a Cleveland fan, I'm used to it. But the question is...would an Astros Championship be enough to swing the election to Bush?

Conservatives finally standing up for their conservative (not right-wing) values.

Latest - Doug Bandow at Salon.com:

Quite simply, the president, despite his well-choreographed posturing, does not represent traditional conservatism -- a commitment to individual liberty, limited government, constitutional restraint and fiscal responsibility. Rather, Bush routinely puts power before principle. As Chris Vance, chairman of Washington state's Republican Party, told the Economist: "George Bush's record is not that conservative ... There's something there for everyone."

Who is Doug Bandow? A Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute, a Visiting Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, and he was a special assistant to President Reagan. I can't think of a more Conservative resume.

This graph is from today's electoral-vote.com. 48 new polls came in today, reflecting post-debate numbers, and Kerry has jumped above the 270 needed for election for the first time since the Swift Boat ads.

It's still very tight. OH and PA have both switched to Kerry, but each by only 2 points - well within the MOE. The biggest news is probably MI - Kerry 52 to 42 according to Survey USA. Considering MI has been a dead heat for weeks, this is a big change...and may not be reliable.

I still say OH is going to be the decider. Obviously, if Kerry wins in FL it's probably all over, but considering the monkey business down there with voter intimidation and voter rolls, I'd expect to see another theft of those 27 EVs. Kerry's got a good shot at MI, IL, WI and PA, but OH is the razor-thin margin. I'd go so far as to say that Cuyahoga County may be the area that decides the 2004 presidential election. Kerry will win Cuyahoga, but if he can win it by 80,000 - 100,000 votes, that will probably offset the very conservative southwest OH and swing the state to him.

So if you live in NE Ohio, Volunteer! Drive single mothers to the polls and stay with the children while they vote! Help the shut-ins get to the polls. And stand as pollwatchers to make sure that voters are able to either vote or get the provisional ballots they've been promised.

I headed on down to CWRU during the debate - threw my headphones on and got my old bike out. ALL roads to University Circle were closed - even on a bike the police had me detour to get in. Got there about 10pm.

I saw at least 4 different events on campus, all of them with huge screens showing the debates, and I know there were more. Since I was going to the Edwards rally, I knew I'd be with a partisan crowd. They cheered Edwards and booed Cheney, although it seemed to me that Cheney did what he had to do to help his ticket - both candidates listed, responded, didn't react, and made their points.

But when Edwards turned to the camera to make his closing speech, everyone at the rally was riveted. That guy can REALLY connect.

After a couple of other pols talked, Edwards showed up about 11:30pm to talk to the crowd. His whole family was with him, but Jack was obviously very tired and a little freaked by the people shouting, and wanted his daddy to pick him up. But he didn't cry. Elizabeth finally took him off, and one of their aides picked him up. Obviously someone Jack was familiar with - he seemed comforted and waved to some people who shouted his name and waved goodbye to him.

Anyway, Edwards pushed home the point that the Bush administration was willing to lie to the American people, and told the crowd that Elizabeth had reminded Cheney, on stage after the debate, that they had met before. That got a huge response. They need to keep pushing that meme - someone willing to lie about the little things, will lie about the big things too.

I got up very close, and was able to shake Edwards' hand. Strong, firm grip. Very practiced

Thanks to a friend of mine who helped some celebs canvass neighborhoods on Saturday (and then came over to help me move) I've got a "yellow ticket" to the post-debate Edwards rally at CWRU, just a mile from here.

I hope Edwards wipes the floor with Cheney. Unfortunately, Edwards automatically loses the expectations game - 67% of people polled by CNN expect Edwards to win. Cheney just has to appear "ok" to win this thing.

FOR SIX months since the effective end of the primary season, President Bush has been portrayed as better able to control the debate by staying on message while John Kerry sends mixed messages. Last night at the first televised presidential debate, that equation was turned on its head.

It's not scientific, but I never expected the reacton at CNN to be THIS skewed.

Kerry did good. Even John Stewart, expecting to have some fun with his speaking style, ended up with "wait...that was clear. I've got nothing here".

The Crawford, TX Lone Star Iconoclast, Bush's hometown newspaper, has endorsed....wait for it...

John Kerry for President.

This was big news yesterday. So big the LSI website was down all day, getting hammered by blog links.

Few Americans would have voted for George W. Bush four years ago if he had promised that, as President, he would:
• Empty the Social Security trust fund by $507 billion to help offset fiscal irresponsibility and at the same time slash Social Security benefits.
• Cut Medicare by 17 percent and reduce veterans’ benefits and military pay.
• Eliminate overtime pay for millions of Americans and raise oil prices by 50 percent.
• Give tax cuts to businesses that sent American jobs overseas, and, in fact, by policy encourage their departure.
• Give away billions of tax dollars in government contracts without competitive bids.
• Involve this country in a deadly and highly questionable war, and
• Take a budget surplus and turn it into the worst deficit in the history of the United States, creating a debt in just four years that will take generations to repay.
These were elements of a hidden agenda that surfaced only after he took office.
The publishers of The Iconoclast endorsed Bush four years ago, based on the things he promised, not on this smoke-screened agenda.
Today, we are endorsing his opponent, John Kerry, based not only on the things that Bush has delivered, but also on the vision of a return to normality that Kerry says our country needs.

Hopefully, Kerry's finally got it. The gloves have to come off.

Now, I know John Kerry didn't write this email. But it's sent in his name, so maybe the campaign is finally starting to get it:

George Bush and Dick Cheney have lost over a million jobs, made our health care crisis worse, and turned record budget surpluses into record deficits. They misled America into war, failed to plan for the peace, and are running up a $200 billion bill at the expense of America's middle class taxpayers.

And now they are acting like they are doing us a favor by standing for re-election. They even have the gall to tell the American people how risky it would be if we turned them out of office.

The biggest risk to America's future is four more years of Bush-Cheney's incompetence, misinformation, and ill intent.

"incompetence, misinformation, and ill intent". YEAH!

No more mamby-pamby thoughtful statements. Straight, to the point, tell it like it is.

The Kerry campaign isn't waiting for voting problems. And they're not rewarding political people with makework vote-watching duties.

They're recruiting teams of litigators and experts to watch the local elections process.

No monkey business this time.

I dunno, it's a nice enough ad, but in the face of Bush's attack ads, I'm surprised. Mary Beth Cahill doesn't seem like a "nice" person - I was looking for something stronger.

I guess they're ramping up for the Convention. Maybe they'll come out swinging in August (Of course, they've got the $75,000,000 problem. Spend the money NOW!)