The news has finally broken that Diebold (now Premier Election Systems) has admitted that a software bug caused undercounting of votes.
Bruce Schneier has a good wrap-up of the news articles. In his article, he states
It's unclear if this error is random or systematic. If it's random -- a small percentage of all votes are dropped -- then it is highly unlikely that this affected the outcome of any election. If it's systematic -- a small percentage of votes for a particular candidate are dropped -- then it is much more problematic.
IF the results are systemic?
It's virtually guaranteed that the results are systemic in Ohio. Here's why.
Ohio is generally a red state, except in the Northeast corner, which is heavily blue. Cleveland itself is VERY blue. Cuyahoga county, ground zero in the 2004 election, contains Cleveland and is itself very blue.
The bug introduces itself in larger counties, and is pretty much never going to be seen in smaller counties. Therefore, votes in larger counties are going to be undercounted.
Large counties = more blue votes
Large counties = more undercounting
therefore
Blue votes = more undercounting.
Viola! Electoral votes delivered to the president,
as promised.
